Von der Leyen is said to be on shaky ground.

No-confidence votes, internal divisions.

Trump and J. D. Vance are said to have enormous influence.

According to the theory, which has also appeared in the Italian press, Orbán’s defeat was deliberately staged, or at least used to free him up for a higher European position.

US President Donald Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance are said to be central to this.

Ursula von der Leyen has long been under pressure.

Several no-confidence votes in the European Parliament have weakened her position, although she has survived them so far.

Orbán has been considered one of the most prominent critics of centralized EU policy for more than 16 years.

He has repeatedly blocked decisions on migration, sanctions and energy policy, calling for national sovereignty.

His government has maintained cheap energy imports from Russia and warned of the economic consequences of sanctions.

According to observers, Orbán’s appointment as head of the Commission would represent a radical change of direction: a weakening or dismantling of the Green Deal, greater consideration of national interests and a more pragmatic stance towards third countries.

The speculation is fuelled by the stance of Péter Magyar.

The winner of the election called for the resignation of the Hungarian president, a signal that was greeted with unease in Brussels.

The new Hungarian parliament is strongly characterized by right-wing and far-right forces; classic centrist parties such as the CDU or SPD are barely represented.

Magyar himself has signaled a continuation of defending national interests, but early signs point to a possible alignment with EU mandates.

Italian reports portray Trump and his circle as the driving force.

The US is said to be interested in changing the EU from within and introducing a Commission presidency that is less confrontational towards Washington and more pragmatic on economic issues.

Orbán is described as a skilled strategist who has even escaped the influence of George Soros’s Open Society Foundations and is a master of long-term political calculations.

The swift and democratic admission of the electoral defeat in this context can be seen as further evidence of the intended higher role.

Whether this theory is correct or just conspiracy speculation remains an open question.

The post of President of the European Commission is held on a rotating basis; the current term ends in 2029.

Von der Leyen’s premature removal would only be possible through a successful vote of no confidence or voluntary resignation.

The speculation nevertheless shows how deep the divisions within the EU have run and how much external actors – above all the United States under Trump – are perceived as trying to influence European personnel decisions.

For Germany, such a change would have far-reaching consequences.

The Green Deal and related instruments, such as CO₂ emission trading, have already come with noticeable costs.

A weakening of this policy under Orbán’s Commission presidency could bring relief to industry and consumers, but at the same time would cause huge conflicts with the Greens and parts of the “Ampel” (Traffic Light) coalition.

The debate on national sovereignty and European integration would be reignited.

The AfD has repeatedly praised Orbán in the past as a model for sovereignty-oriented politics.

After the elections, Alice Weidel thanked him for his role as a critical voice and pointed out that Orbán – unlike the indirectly elected von der Leyen – could be voted out.

Whether the speculation about Orbán’s candidacy for an EU post is realistic will become clear in the coming months.

What is certain, however, is that the Hungarian power shift and the accompanying international reactions will further strain the already tense relationship within the European Union.

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